I had posted my last detailed post on USDINR at USDINR 10 July 2013 : Gets complicated and a short update on the likely EW counts at USDINR 01 August 2013 : The most preferred EW count. The moves so far continue to remain within expected alternates. The chart below is an update of how it looks for USDINR as on 12 August 2013.
This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR. The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple. The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors. Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color. Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs. A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low. The EW count so far remain as
Trade Setup - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively. SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.
This chart has guided me so far in the longer term for past six months or more and it still continues to remain the biggest influence on how I think about USDINR. The chart shows an APF in red and two SFFs in blue and purple. The reference points are shown in circles of respective colors. Some important resistance/supports within an object are shown with triangles of same color. Presently I expect the price action to remain within UTLs of blue and purple SFFs. A breach back of purple UTL needs to occur for any substantial correction or a fall below previous low. The EW count so far remain as
| 1 | 51.365 | - | 55.875 | = | -4.51 | ||
| 2 | 55.875 | - | 52.89 | = | 2.985 | -66.1863 | |
| 3 | 52.89 | - | 61.905 | = | -9.015 | 199.8891 | |
| 4 | 61.905 | - | 58.46 | = | 3.445 | -38.2141 | |
| 5 | 58.46 | - | 62.97 | = | -4.51 | 100 |
Trade Setup - Longs near 58 and shorts near 62.2 can be initiated as and when they are reached for targets to blue and purple UTLs respectively. SLs can be suitably taken beyond the respective TLs.
hi falcon where do u see the dollar heading now....please suggest me as it is very important for me
ReplyDeleteHi sach. Sorry for the delay in reply. As far as I perceive now(after some sequential invalidations of my presumed counts), USD/INR has to do a major correction but the current wave is not yet over. I do not see it going above 65.96 before a decent correction takes place. I hope to see it reverse from 65.59-65.63 for a smaller correction to approx 63.6 followed by a rise beyond the high it makes (but not over 65.96). Once this is done, the correction of the entire move from 51.36-65.xx should take place. At 38.2%, it should see 60 or a tad lower. From there another upward leg should start. For now, 63.08 is SL for longs and 65.96 is SL for shorts. Remember these when you take your call. Coz when these get breached my presumptions will become invalid.
ReplyDeletethanks a lot falcon....
ReplyDeletedear falcon
ReplyDeletewhere do u see the dollar heading now
sach
Dear Sach, please see the newer posts.
ReplyDelete